लाभ-हानि बिंदु, नकदी प्रवाह और जोखिम

01Break even in kilograms

Break even is where a cycle's receipts cover its costs. Work it in kilograms, because kilograms are what you count every morning.

Take the costs that do not change with output for one cycle: rent, depreciation, interest, permanent labour. Then take net price per kilogram and subtract the costs that do change: straw, spawn, casing, packing, commission. Divide the first by the second.

The answer is how many kilograms that cycle must sell before it begins to earn. Write it on the room door. It turns an accounting idea into a daily target.

02Run the downside first

Published ranges exist because results vary. ICAR-DMR's Table 7.1 gives 10 to 15 kg per 100 kg for long method compost and 18 to 25 kg for short method. The NHB model DPR lists Indian strain yields from 14 to 16 kg per 100 kg for S-11 up to 22 to 27 kg for DMR-NBS-5.

A plan that only works at the top of a range is not a plan. Build three cases on one cost sheet: the bottom of the range, the middle, and one where a whole cycle is lost to contamination.

If the bottom case still pays the loan instalment, the project can survive a bad season.

03Cash flow month by month

Annual profit hides the month you run out of money. Lay twelve months across a page. In each month write what leaves and what arrives, using real cycle dates, not an even spread.

Money leaves early: compost or straw, spawn, casing, fuel, wages. Money arrives late, after picking and after the buyer's credit period. In a six cycle year with rooms filled one after another, the next cycle's outflow lands before the last one's inflow clears.

The lowest point on that page, not the yearly total, is the working capital the project truly needs.

04A risk list you will actually use

A risk list is not a paragraph about uncertainty. It is a table with four columns: the risk, its early warning sign, what you will do, and who does it.

Keep it short and specific to your site. A bad casing lot shows as uneven pinning within a week of casing. A power failure shows as room temperature drifting out of band. A buyer in trouble shows as payment slipping from seven days to twenty.

• Crop risks: contamination, casing lot quality, spawn age.
• Site risks: power, water, labour, cold chain.
• Money risks: buyer default, price fall, instalment date.